Key Contenders for the Premiership
Matthew Lloyd, a former Essendon champion, has identified four teams that he believes have the best chance of winning the premiership this season. Based on the performance of teams in the first two months of the season, Lloyd highlights Hawthorn, Sydney, Fremantle, and the reigning premiers Brisbane as the top contenders.
On the other hand, he is not placing much faith in last year’s runner-up, Geelong, or the Gold Coast, who were seen as pre-season favorites. Additionally, the experienced Collingwood and Adelaide, who finished as minor premiers last year, are also not in his top four.
Current Standings and Team Performances
Heading into round eight, Hawthorn, Sydney, and Fremantle occupy the top three positions on the ladder. These teams have managed to separate themselves from the rest of the competition by a margin of four points.
Fremantle recently secured an impressive victory, coming from 26 points down to defeat the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium. Meanwhile, Hawthorn played out a draw against Collingwood.
Brisbane, on the other hand, sit in sixth place with four wins and three losses. They have had a slightly slower start to the season following their premiership win, but their credentials remain strong.
Fremantle’s Strong Performance
Speaking before their game against the Bulldogs on Friday night, Lloyd expressed his admiration for Fremantle.
“I think there’s only about four teams good enough to win it (the flag) this year, and they’re one of them, Fremantle,” Lloyd said on 3AW.
“I think it’s Brisbane, Sydney, Hawthorn, and Fremantle. They’re the best four in it. Gold Coast is a watch now.”
When asked if he believed Collingwood could make a significant impact in September, Lloyd was less optimistic.
“I don’t think so. Damage, I think they could win one, maybe two finals, but I don’t think they’re any better than that,” he said.
“I’m sure others might disagree with me.”
Collingwood’s Potential
Brownlow Medallist Jimmy Bartel agreed with Lloyd’s selection of the top four teams. However, he acknowledged that Collingwood could still cause some damage.
“I’m not disagreeing with you. I think Collingwood can do some damage because they are so well drilled and organised,” Bartel said.
“They are timing their run to be fresher and better than last year. We spoke to Steele Sidebottom on Thursday and he said, ‘Look, we were 15-2 (last year) and we fell off a cliff. We’re trying to avoid that again.’”
Collingwood’s Challenges
Despite finishing as minor premiers in 2025, Collingwood ultimately lost out on the premiership, hosting a preliminary final before being defeated by the Lions. They are once again aiming to win a premiership with what would be the oldest list in VFL/AFL history to achieve this feat.
Upcoming Matches
Brisbane will face the struggling Essendon at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, while Sydney will host the fast-starting Melbourne on Sunday at the SCG.
Fremantle and Hawthorn will meet next Thursday night at Optus Stadium in a match between two of Lloyd’s top contenders.
Lloyd previously made a similar assessment in June 2025, correctly identifying grand finalists Brisbane and Geelong among his top three teams that could win the flag.
