Unlikely Scenarios in the Premier League Relegation Battle
The Premier League has seen some unexpected results over the weekend, with Tottenham, West Ham, and Nottingham Forest all securing victories. These outcomes have created a new level of uncertainty for several clubs, including Newcastle United, which now faces an unusual threat of relegation to the Championship.
A football data expert has analyzed the remaining fixtures of the season and outlined potential scenarios that could see Newcastle United fall into the bottom three. While many fans believe the relegation battle is primarily between Tottenham and West Ham, there are other teams still in contention, such as Crystal Palace, Leeds United, and Nottingham Forest.
The TikTok account aaronw_data has shared insights into how Newcastle could be relegated on 43 points, although this would require a series of unlikely events. For example, Newcastle would need to lose to both Nottingham Forest and West Ham, while only managing to earn one point against either Brighton or Fulham in their final matches.
Meanwhile, the team led by Roberto De Zerbi would need to win three out of their next four games, defeating Leeds United and two of Aston Villa, Chelsea, or Everton.
Is it really that crazy for a team to be relegated from the Premier League? As of 25th April 2026, this scenario seems highly improbable. #footballtiktok #premierleague #prem #epl #relegation
TikTok
•
AaronW
Relegation battle as it stands…
- Crystal Palace (43 pts)*
- Newcastle (42pts)
- Leeds (40pts)
- Nottingham Forest (39pts)
- West Ham (36pts)
- Tottenham (34pts)
- Burnley (20 pts – relegated)
- Wolves (17pts – relegated)
*game in hand
Tottenham’s recent victory over Wolves was their first Premier League win of 2026, but they have started to gain momentum, making their survival possible. Nottingham Forest would need to beat Newcastle and secure three more points in their final three games against Chelsea, Manchester United, or Bournemouth.
West Ham’s role in Newcastle’s potential relegation involves defeating Howe’s side at St James’ Park and drawing with Leeds on the last day of the season. Additionally, West Ham would need to pick up four points against Brentford and title-chasing Arsenal.
Leeds would also have to beat either Burnley or Brighton, lose to Tottenham, and draw with the Hammers to ensure their safety and leave Newcastle in the bottom three at the end of the campaign.
Under these circumstances, the final Premier League table would see Newcastle relegated on 43 points due to goal difference, provided Tottenham closes the six-goal gap currently separating the two sides. Tottenham would finish 17th with West Ham 16th and Leeds 15th, both on 44 points, while Nottingham Forest would climb to 14th on 45 points.
According to OPTA’s supercomputer, Newcastle only has a 0.7 per cent chance of being relegated. Meanwhile, the chances for Leeds and Nottingham Forest to be relegated are approximately one and two per cent respectively. The odds increase significantly for West Ham, with a 37.94 per cent chance of relegation, and Tottenham is viewed as the most likely to go down at 58.99 per cent.
Although the possibility exists, the likelihood of all these scenarios unfolding is extremely low. The football data expert ran simulations through a supercomputer and found that it took 2,650 attempts before Newcastle was relegated. He admitted he was surprised at how slim the chances were.
“I’ve got a feeling it might be a bit more likely than that,” he said at the end of the video.
