A New Era for Carlton Under Josh Fraser
Carlton’s caretaker coach, Josh Fraser, may find himself reevaluating his coaching ambitions if the current trajectory continues. The Blues have managed to secure three consecutive wins under Fraser’s leadership following the departure of Michael Voss, with a standout victory against premiership contenders, Geelong. This success has sparked discussions about whether the club could achieve the unthinkable: sacking a coach and still making the finals in the same season.
This rare feat has become more plausible than ever since the AFL introduced the Wildcard Round, extending the finals race to a top 10 teams. For Carlton, the path to September action is further eased by the fact that they will only leave Victoria once more for the remainder of the season, with a short flight to Sydney to face GWS.
Key Matches Ahead
The next month will be crucial in Carlton’s pursuit of a finals berth. They will face Essendon, the Giants, West Coast, and Richmond. Winning these four games would bring them to an 8-8 record heading into the final third of the season. In the past four seasons, the 10th-placed team has typically had between 11 and 12 wins for the year. Games against Brisbane, Collingwood, St Kilda, and the Western Bulldogs could be seen as winnable matches.
Matches against Fremantle, Gold Coast, and Hawthorn in front of passionate home crowds could provide the Navy Blues with the necessary boost as they aim for an unlikely finals appearance.
Statistical Insights
The numbers tell a compelling story. Over the past five weeks, including a fortnight under Voss, Carlton has been the best transition team from defensive 50 to forward 50, translating to the strongest side scoring from the chain, according to WheeloRatings. They rank first in disposals, as well as forward 50 groundball gets (the only team in the competition to produce a positive differential), ball win, and post-clearance contested possession.
Carlton is fourth in intercepts during that five-week block, sixth in inside 60s, and third in chains to scores. Fraser has instilled a sense of boldness, not recklessness, in their kicking. They rank in the top four for kicking retention rating, rivaling the likes of Sydney, Geelong, and St Kilda.
They also lead the competition in inside-50 retention in the past month (54.7 percent). Under Fraser, they have mitigated opposition scores from turnover, which has historically been a weakness of the Blues.
Improved Performance
In the last three weeks, Carlton has lost scores from turnover by a collective three points. This marks a significant turnaround from the overall season ranking of 16th in the league and a -17.4 differential. The impact of Fraser has been profound, albeit in a short period. Could he reconsider his stance on the Carlton coaching job?
