The Resilience of the Cruise Industry Amid Health Outbreaks
Recent outbreaks of hantavirus and norovirus on cruise ships have captured public attention, yet industry leaders and travel experts suggest that these incidents are unlikely to significantly impact the growing popularity of cruise vacations. Despite reports of three passengers aboard the MV Hondius passing away due to hantavirus after a stop in Argentina and a recent norovirus outbreak on a British ship in Bordeaux, France, the cruise sector remains optimistic about its future.
Industry representatives and analysts emphasize that the cruise consumer appears to be “Teflon” when it comes to negative news. Rob Kwortnik, an associate professor at Cornell University’s Nolan School of Hotel Administration, noted this resilience during an interview. He pointed out that despite these health concerns, the industry is still anticipating record numbers of travelers this year.
In mid-April, the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), an industry trade group, released an annual forecast predicting 38.3 million people would travel on ocean-going ships this year—a 4% increase from the previous year’s record of 37.2 million passengers. While specific sales figures remain confidential, several major cruise companies, including Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, and Carnival, did not respond to inquiries about customer demand.
Oceanwide Expeditions, the Dutch company that owns the MV Hondius, has stated that it does not foresee any operational changes. A cruise is set to depart from Keflavik, Iceland, on May 29.
Veteran cruisers, such as Jenni Fielding, who blogs under the name Cruise Mummy, have expressed confidence in the safety of cruising. Fielding, who has eight cruises booked, said she will definitely book another. She emphasized that cruising is as safe as any other type of holiday, provided travelers follow sensible health advice and stay informed about official guidance.
Scott Eddy, a hospitality influencer currently on a cruise in Monaco, shared similar sentiments. He mentioned that fellow passengers have not discussed the hantavirus outbreak, suggesting that many travelers view such incidents as isolated events rather than indicative of broader issues with cruise travel.
CruiseCompete.com, an online marketplace for vacation planning, reported a 31.7% increase in cabin bookings during the first half of May compared to the same period last year. CEO Bob Levinstein confirmed that there has been no drop in demand, attributing this to the fact that most cruises are booked well in advance—often up to a year ahead.
Levinstein also highlighted that norovirus, a highly contagious stomach bug, is often conflated with cruises in the minds of many Americans. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control requires ships to disclose when 3% or more passengers report symptoms. On a ship with 5,000 passengers, an illness affecting 3% would go largely unnoticed by most vacationers, according to Levinstein.
Current news cycles rarely influence passengers’ decisions to join a cruise, as trips are typically booked months in advance. Kwortnik explained that people booking cruises now are thinking about holidays, not current events.
During a conference call with investors, Switzerland-based cruise line Viking reported a brief softening in demand for its river cruises during the first three months of this year following the Iran war but noted a quick rebound. Viking revealed that 92% of its 2026 cruises and 38% of its 2027 cruises were already booked, without mentioning hantavirus or norovirus.
Andrew Coggins, a cruise industry analyst and professor at Pace University’s Lubin School of Business, noted that even if some travelers are unsettled by recent news, they are unlikely to receive a refund. He suggested that any impact on demand would likely be long-term, as those planning to cruise soon are past the point of being able to get their money back.
Coggins also pointed out that the hantavirus story gained significant attention because it reminded people of the Diamond Princess, which was quarantined off Japan in early 2020 after the coronavirus was detected on board. The COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on the cruise industry, leading to the shutdown of many smaller operators. Cruises only began to see a recovery in passenger numbers in 2022.
While there are still fewer cruise passengers from China and Japan than before the pandemic, demand elsewhere is booming, according to CLIA. Coggins noted that there are new ships on order through 2037, and cruise lines are bullish about future growth, aiming to offer new destinations and experiences.
One reason for the growth of cruising is its broad appeal across generations and income levels. A recent U.S. survey by Bank of America found that Generation Z and millennials were the most likely to plan a cruise in the next 12 months. The survey also showed that cruise spending increased for lower-income households, even as they spent less on airfare and lodging. Cruise lines have been targeting these passengers with shorter, more affordable itineraries.
Kwortnik emphasized that cruising offers value for vacation dollars. He noted that, on average, it costs more to stay at a hotel in Miami than to sail on a cruise out of Miami, as the cruise fare includes lodging, multiple destinations, food, entertainment, and transportation.
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