Blues icon Phil Gould has revealed the trends that have shaped the outcomes of Origin fixtures in recent years, following New South Wales’ dramatic victory in Game One.
Before the first match of the series, Gould expressed concerns about the team selected by Laurie Daley, suggesting it lacked balance compared to Queensland. He also questioned NSW’s ability to survive without possession, a concern that was validated in the opening 20 minutes when Queensland led 20-0.
On Nine’s 100% Footy, Gould reinforced his earlier criticisms.
“Everything I feared about Queensland came true in the first hour of play,” he said. “Everything I feared about their side and their football—the skill, spontaneity, and instinct of the halfback, as well as the speed out wide to chase kicks—came true. And everything I feared about the NSW side also came true.”
He pointed to defensive lapses and mistakes made by the Blues in the early stages. “There were some really lazy moments in defence, and they made errors coming out of trouble. They were extremely conservative in the first half. Queensland were first to pass the ball in their own half, first to spread the ball, and they put multiple offloads together. They kicked early in the tackle count and used grubber kicks in the 20m zone. That’s what I feared about them—they had that football instinct, and we were just a traditional grinding team.”
However, Gould highlighted that the second half showcased a different side of NSW, one that could score points when willing to take risks. He noted a recurring trend from the past four Origin matches, where each side dominated one half.
In the last series, NSW won Game One 18-6 before Queensland secured wins of 26-24 and 24-12 to clinch the series. This year, the Blues triumphed 22-20 in Game One.
Looking at those matches, the Blues have scored 56 points in the second half while conceding only eight. Meanwhile, Queensland averages just two points in the second half.
“This means NSW is handling fatigue and fitness better than Queensland,” Gould said. “They just need to get their start right.”
He pointed to NSW’s poor performance in the previous Origin series, where they dropped the ball and showed weak defending on their line. “The tries they conceded should’ve been stopped, but Queensland knew exactly where they’d be weak and exploited it.”
Gould emphasized that Queensland needs to improve their start and be more adventurous early in the game. “If they can get into the game better and be a little more daring early on, I think they can beat them handsomely.”
Game Two will take place in Melbourne on June 17.
