The Unlikely Fall of the Top Four
Within moments of Keano Kini’s performance that saw the reigning premiers fall to a fifth consecutive loss on Saturday night, a question sparked in the rugby league community through group chats. “Has an entire top four missed the finals the following season?”
The answer is no. Not once since 1908. Even with the Storm, Broncos, Raiders and Bulldogs sitting between positions 11 and 14 on the NRL ladder after mostly miserable starts to 2026, it seems unlikely this will be the year either. The NRL’s strange decision to award two points for a bye has distorted the ladder. Removing those two-point gifts would reveal Melbourne as just one win behind the eighth-placed Sharks.
Despite set restarts, injuries, and hubris, history could still be made by the falling heavyweights. The only time three of the previous year’s top four missed the finals was in 2005 when Canterbury, the Roosters, and the Panthers all fell short.
On current form and the first 13 rounds of 2026, the Broncos, Raiders, and Bulldogs are likely to face Mad Mondays and post-mortems when the finals begin. Even with Canterbury’s nail-biting 14-12 victory over Parramatta keeping their top-eight hopes alive, the outlook remains bleak.
Melbourne’s signs of life after seven straight losses, and Brisbane’s revival from a similar plight 12 months ago, offer hope. Columns like this may well be shot down by the rugby league universe, but they highlight the ongoing struggle of the top teams.
Struggles of the Top Teams
The Bulldogs have struggled with the manufactured game speed and fatigue caused by endless six agains at the start of the season. Without a running dummy half, they lack the necessary tools to compete. Meanwhile, the game’s livewires have come to life with the ruck opening up like Sydney Heads, making possession a critical factor in games.
Composed, game-managing halves, such as Nathan Cleary, Tannah Boyd (until his ACL rupture), Jamal Fogarty, and Isaiya Katoa, have proven essential in controlling and kicking teams around the field.
The Bulldogs, however, are stuck with Lachlan Galvin and Matt Burton in this role, neither of whom are built for it. Despite Galvin being Canterbury’s most consistent player this year, he faces relentless pressure each week. A scrappy win over the Eels, with 84 tackles in the Eels half, did little to convince that the Bulldogs’ attack is about to take flight.
Canterbury chairman Adam Driussi recently acknowledged in a letter to members that the rule changes have arguably not suited their style of play or the shape of their roster. General manager Phil Gould’s recent meetings with potential recruits Luke Metcalf, Sam Verrills, and Connor Watson suggest something is being done about it.
Injuries and Roster Issues
With their own roster holes and a defensive focus that doesn’t align with the NRL’s push for attack and speed, Melbourne had slumped similarly. Losing players like Eli Katoa, Tui Kamikamica, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, and back-rowers Ativalu Lisati and Shawn Blore exposed the Storm’s depth issues.
Melbourne has weathered an injury toll matched only by Parramatta, winning four of their past five games. They now have three byes left to make a post-Origin run.
Injuries have hit all the incumbent top four teams. Canterbury has lost Jacob Preston, Viliame Kikau, Jacob Kiraz, and Stephen Crichton, who have been playing through pain. Canberra has been without Josh Papali’i and Simi Sasagi, while Brisbane has lost key players like Payne Haas, Reece Walsh, Pat Carrigan, Jordan Riki, and Deine Mariner at various stages.
The Road to Redemption
The Broncos and Raiders have the talent and game to catch fire, which is why, once Brisbane paired Walsh’s brilliance with defensive grit, they ended a 19-year premiership drought last season. However, without a grinding game as a backbone, like Penrith and the Warriors, the magic can quickly turn into madness.
The title-holders have already lost to teams ranked 17th and 16th in consecutive weeks. Defensive lapses appear as disinterest, and for the Broncos, the heat and hype of being reigning premiers and the NRL’s biggest club can lead to turmoil.
While Canberra struggles for consistency and cohesion among their young playmakers, the Broncos are stuck in the same mire as the Lions (eighth after 13 games). They remain at Mount Everest base camp, sucking back emergency oxygen, having just returned from the summit.
Shifting Landscapes in the NRL
The salary cap rarely works as intended, with the last eight premierships shared among three perennial powerhouses. However, the NRL-era landscape occasionally shifts into a new order. The Tigers’ 2005 title came after the early-2000s dominance of the Broncos, Roosters, and Bulldogs.
South Sydney, North Queensland, and Cronulla (2014-16) claimed premierships as the Storm rebuilt and the Roosters recalibrated. The drop-off of the top four from last year might point to a similar shift given the emergence of the Dolphins, Warriors, and Manly this season with squads on the rise.
However, one team continues to dominate: Penrith, sitting way out in front once more, after missing the top four for the first time in five years.
