Scotland’s World Cup aspirations are hanging in the balance after they concluded Group C in third place following a 3-0 loss to Brazil. Their chances of advancing to the knockout stages now depend on other results, leaving them in a precarious position.
Steve Clarke’s team began their campaign with a win against Haiti, followed by a narrow 1-0 defeat to Morocco. However, the 3-0 loss to Brazil proved to be a devastating blow, leaving Scotland with just three points and a goal difference of -3. With only the top eight third-place teams from the 12 groups qualifying, Scotland must rely on four other teams finishing with fewer than three points or a worse goal difference than theirs.
The outcome for Scotland will not be determined until all group stage matches are completed, meaning they will have to wait until Sunday to find out their fate. South Africa’s victory over South Korea in Group A and Ecuador’s impressive win over Germany in Group E have already made their path to the knockout rounds more challenging.
How Can Scotland Qualify?
After their defeat to Brazil, Scotland’s progression to the next stage of the tournament is entirely dependent on other results. They need at least four favorable outcomes across different groups to secure a spot in the last-32.
Here’s a breakdown of what needs to happen:
Group I
A draw between Senegal and Iraq would be ideal for Scotland. If Iraq wins 3-0, it could help their cause, but even a one-goal win for Senegal would suffice. Scotland requires either a draw or a narrow Iraq win.
Group H
Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia are both expected to finish above Scotland. However, a victory for Spain against Uruguay would mean the third-placed team finishes with only two points. Scotland needs Spain to win this match.
Group G
The crucial match in Group G is Egypt versus Iran. A win for Egypt would ensure that the third-place team, either Iran or Belgium, has fewer than three points. Scotland needs Egypt to come out victorious.
Fixtures on Friday, 25 June
- Norway vs France (Group I) – 8pm BST
- Senegal vs Iraq (Group I) – 8pm BST
- Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia (Group H) – 1am BST
- Uruguay vs Spain (Group H) – 1am BST
- Egypt vs Iran (Group G) – 4am BST
- New Zealand vs Belgium (Group G) – 4am BST
Fixtures on Saturday, 26 June
- Croatia vs Ghana (Group L) – 10pm BST
- Panama vs England (Group L) – 10pm BST
- Colombia vs Portugal (Group K) – 12.30am BST
- DR Congo vs Uzbekistan (Group K) – 12.30am BST
- Algeria vs Austria (Group J) – 3am BST
- Jordan vs Argentina (Group J) – 3am BST
What Scotland Needs
Group L
If Croatia earns a point or better against Ghana, the third-place team will have more points than Scotland. To avoid this, Scotland needs Ghana to beat Croatia by three goals.
Group K
DR Congo and Uzbekistan will face off for third place. A draw would be ideal, or a win for Uzbekistan by three or fewer goals. If DR Congo wins, they will finish with four points. Scotland needs DR Congo to fail in winning this match.
Group J
Austria and Algeria are currently tied on three points each, with Algeria having a worse goal difference. Scotland needs an Austria win, preferably by two goals or more. Alternatively, if Algeria wins by four or more goals, it would leave Austria with a goal difference of -4 or worse.
Full Group Stage Standings
Who Will Scotland Play in the Knockout Rounds?
If Scotland manages to qualify, they will face the winner of Group A, Mexico, in the last-32 in Mexico City. A victory over Mexico would put them in line to face England in the round of 16, provided England finishes top of Group L and defeats their likely opponents in the last-32.
Should Scotland defeat England, a rematch against Brazil could be on the cards. Otherwise, they might face Japan, Ivory Coast, or Norway in the quarter-finals. The exact path depends on the outcomes of other matches, making the rest of the tournament highly unpredictable.
