A Glimpse into the Future of Football
A clip from 1994, featuring experts predicting where football would be in a decade, recently resurfaced on social media. Fans were amazed by how accurate some of the predictions turned out to be. Among those featured was Mike Collins, an Arsenal fanzine editor, who forecasted credit card entry to stadiums, a decline in “hardcore support,” and a rise in “glory hunters.” He expressed his disapproval of this potential future, stating that he and other old-style fans had no interest in it.
While not all predictions have come true, some were remarkably spot-on. Neil Duncanson, a former broadcast executive, predicted that television would completely control football in the next century. Alex Fynn, an author and football consultant, foresaw that match-going fans would be seen by clubs as “incidental,” only valuable for providing a spectacular background for television broadcasts.
These insights were part of a programme called Standing Room Only, which aired between 1991 and 1994. Sport caught up with Duncanson and Fynn to reflect on their predictions and their views on where the national game might be in the next decade.
The Media Landscape: A Predictable Shift
In 1992, Sky secured the rights to broadcast the newly established Premier League in a £304m five-year deal. Two years later, Duncanson predicted that the power of broadcasters over football would grow significantly. He suggested that fans in 2004 would watch football through subscription and pay-per-view services, possibly via local cable stations. He even envisioned a system where fans could watch games by inserting a card and entering a number on their telephone, paying £5 for the service.
More than three decades later, subscription-funded broadcasters remain the gatekeepers of top-flight English football. In 2023, the Premier League agreed to a record four-year £6.7bn domestic television deal for Sky and TNT to show up to 270 live games a season from 2025-26.
Reflecting on his original predictions, Duncanson said it wasn’t rocket science to see where things were heading if you followed the money. He noted that Sky’s investment changed the game by establishing them as a major satellite power, which they continue to be today.
Looking ahead, Duncanson anticipates a shift in subscription viewing. He introduced the concept of DTC (direct-to-customer), suggesting that football fans are becoming increasingly frustrated with rising subscription prices. He believes the Premier League will evolve into a rights holder and broadcast platform, similar to the NFL, NBA, and Formula 1. He mentioned the Premier League’s new channel in Singapore as a potential model for expansion into other territories.
Football’s Relationship with Matchday Fans
Fynn, who contributed to the creation of the Premier League as a consultant for the Football Association, believes the increased focus on broadcast revenue and international audiences has led top-flight English clubs to deprioritize their traditional fanbases. He argues that clubs have exploited the fact that fans cannot easily take their business elsewhere.
Fynn predicts that rising player wages will further impact match-day fans. He suggests that clubs will prioritize “tourist fans” who are willing to pay higher prices for tickets and merchandise. This shift, he says, is driven by the need to cover the costs associated with high player salaries.
Despite these challenges, Fynn praised the contributions of English fans over the past decade, particularly through organizations like the Football Supporters’ Association (FSA) and Supporters Direct. He also highlighted the fan-led review of football governance, which led to the establishment of an independent football regulator in England.
He speculated that Uefa’s spending caps may eventually influence the Premier League. While the Premier League allows clubs to spend up to 85% of their income on player wages, Uefa’s limit is 70%. Fynn believes this could lead to a more balanced playing field, although he acknowledges that clubs will likely continue charging fans high prices as long as they can get away with it.
Future Financing and Challenges
Fynn believes that the devaluing of matchday revenue harms clubs in the lower tiers of English football. He notes that while matchday revenue was once crucial, broadcast revenue now dominates. However, for smaller clubs, matchday revenue remains vital. Despite this, many leagues face significant losses, and Fynn warns that the current system is unsustainable.
He cited examples such as Sheffield Wednesday, which entered administration and received a 15-point deduction after being relegated. Similarly, Chelsea announced the biggest pre-tax loss in Premier League history for the 2024-25 season.
Fynn emphasized that nobody should be priced out of football, highlighting the importance of fan protests, such as those in Liverpool, which resonate with rival fans. He encouraged followers to stay connected with their clubs through various platforms, including podcasts and news updates.
