Political Shift in Andalusia
Juanma Moreno of the People’s Party (PP) appears to be on track to secure an absolute majority in Andalusia, according to early results and an exit poll by Sigma Dos for ‘Canal Sur’. This marks a significant shift as the ruling party, which has been in power since 2019, is expected to maintain its dominance. In contrast, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) faces a challenging situation, struggling to attract votes in what could be one of its worst electoral performances in the region.
According to the preliminary data, the PP is projected to win between 56 and 59 seats, which aligns closely with the 58 they held in the previous parliament. This number exceeds the 55 required for an absolute majority, suggesting that Moreno may govern alone for another four years without needing to form coalitions.
The PSOE, led locally by María Jesús Montero, is anticipated to secure between 26 and 29 seats, falling short of the current 30 it holds. This outcome would mark the worst result for the party in Andalusia, where it had been a dominant force for nearly four decades. Montero, who entered the campaign while still serving as finance minister, has not managed to halt the decline in support.
Other Political Parties
Vox, the far-right party, is expected to remain largely unchanged, securing between 13 and 15 seats compared to the 14 it currently holds. It lacks the strength to be decisive in this election. To the left of Vox, the Por Andalucía alliance is projected to hover around 5 or 6 seats, similar to its current position. However, the most notable surprise could be Adelante Andalucía, which is expected to increase from 2 to between 4 and 5 representatives.
These figures are based on a poll and not final results, but the trend is clear. The election in Andalusia, Spain’s most populous region, is being seen as a political barometer for the upcoming general election in 2027. The context includes growing fatigue with the national government and several corruption investigations involving the president’s inner circle and former aides.
Significance of the Election
Andalusia, home to nearly nine million people, holds considerable power in key areas such as healthcare, education, and housing. This makes the election a crucial test within Spain’s decentralized system. Traditionally a socialist stronghold, the region has been governed by the PP since 2019.
Polling stations opened at 9:00 AM and remained open until 20:45 due to issues at three polling stations. The election day was closely watched both regionally and nationally. A total of 163,510 Andalusians voted in advance, according to official data. Juanma Moreno, the PP candidate and regional government president, cast his ballot in Málaga, accompanied by his wife.
While the PP is favored to retain power, it is not yet clear whether it will secure enough seats to govern alone. If not, Vox could once again play a decisive role, as seen in other regions like Extremadura, Aragón, and Castilla y León.
Impact on the PSOE
A defeat for the PSOE in Andalusia would be particularly significant. María Jesús Montero, the party’s candidate, is a former deputy prime minister and finance minister. The PP has targeted her, linking her to the central government’s management and the ongoing corruption cases affecting the party.
Montero cast her vote in Seville and emphasized the importance of the day, stating, “This is an extremely important day for us to be able to decide our future. Nobody should stay at home.”
During the campaign, PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo urged voters to support his party, highlighting the potential for a double effect: consolidating political change in Andalusia and strengthening the alternative to Sánchez’s government.
Political Strategies
The PP has not ruled out forming alliances with Vox, as it has done in other regions. This sets it apart from other European conservative parties that distance themselves from the far right. Meanwhile, Sánchez has called for progressive voters to mobilize to prevent Vox from entering the Andalusian government, positioning Montero as a strong candidate for the region.
Other candidates have also cast their votes. José Ignacio García of Adelante Andalucía voted in Jerez de la Frontera, accompanied by his mother. He stated, “Today we are all equal, we all have the same power and we have to make the most of it.”
