The Unlikely Fall of the Top Four
Within moments of Keano Kini’s performance that saw the reigning premiers fall to a fifth straight loss on Saturday night, a question circulated among rugby league fans: “Has an entire top four missed the finals the following season?”
The answer is a resounding no. Since 1908, not once has the top four failed to make the finals in the subsequent season. Even with the Storm, Broncos, Raiders and Bulldogs sitting between positions 11 and 14 on the NRL ladder after mostly disappointing starts to 2026, it seems unlikely this will be the year either.
The NRL’s decision to award two points for a bye has distorted the ladder. If those two-point gifts were removed, Melbourne would rank behind the eighth-placed Sharks by just one win. Despite set restarts, injuries, and overconfidence, history might be repeated, if not rewritten, by the falling heavyweights.
The only time three of the previous year’s top four missed the finals was in 2005, when the 2004 premiers Canterbury, runners-up Roosters, and fourth-placed Panthers all fell short. On current form and through the first 13 rounds of 2026, the Broncos, Raiders, and Bulldogs are likely to face Mad Mondays and post-mortems when the finals begin. Even with Canterbury’s narrow 14-12 victory over Parramatta keeping their top-eight hopes alive, the outlook remains bleak.
A Glimmer of Hope
Despite the struggles, there are signs of hope. Melbourne’s recent resurgence after seven straight losses and Brisbane’s revival from a similar situation 12 months ago offer a ray of optimism. Columns like this, however, may soon be proven wrong by the rugby league universe.
Canterbury, much like the Storm, has struggled with the manufactured game speed and fatigue caused by endless six agains at the start of the season. The Bulldogs lack a running dummy half, which has been crucial in the current era of rugby league. Meanwhile, the game’s livewires have thrived as the ruck opens up like Sydney Heads, but possession can now kill off a team and a contest more than ever before.
Composed, game-managing halves—such as Nathan Cleary, Tannah Boyd (until his ACL rupture), Jamal Fogarty, and Isaiya Katoa—have proven vital in controlling and kicking teams around the field. However, the Bulldogs are left with Lachlan Galvin and Matt Burton, who are awkwardly tasked with this role despite neither being built for it. Galvin, Canterbury’s most consistent player this year, faces relentless pressure each week.
Monday afternoon’s scrappy win over the Eels, where Galvin made 84 tackles in the Eels’ half, did little to convince that the Bulldogs’ attack is about to take flight. Canterbury chairman Adam Driussi recently acknowledged in a letter to members that the rule changes have arguably not suited their style of play or the shape of their roster. General manager Phil Gould’s meetings with potential recruits like Luke Metcalf, Sam Verrills, and Connor Watson suggest something is being done about it.
Injuries and Roster Challenges
Melbourne, too, has faced similar challenges. Losing key players such as Eli Katoa, Tui Kamikamica, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, and back-rowers Ativalu Lisati and Shawn Blore exposed the Storm’s depth issues. However, they have managed to win four of their past five games and now have three byes left to make a post-Origin run.
Injuries have hit all of the incumbent top four teams. Canterbury has dealt with Jacob Preston, Viliame Kikau, Jacob Kiraz, and Stephen Crichton playing through pain. Canberra has gone without Josh Papali’i and Simi Sasagi, while Brisbane has lost Payne Haas, Reece Walsh, Pat Carrigan, Jordan Riki, and Deine Mariner at various stages.
The Broncos and Raiders still possess the talent to ignite the competition. This is why, when Brisbane paired Walsh’s brilliance with defensive grit, they ended a 19-year premiership drought last season. However, without a grinding game as a backbone, like Penrith and the Warriors, the magic can quickly turn into madness. The title-holders have already lost to teams ranked 17th and 16th in consecutive weeks.
Defensive lapses appear as disinterest, and for the Broncos, the heat and hype of being reigning premiers and the NRL’s biggest club can lead to turmoil. This was evident 12 months ago when Kevin Walters was turfed out after a grand final run.
While Canberra struggles for consistency and cohesion among its young playmakers, the Broncos find themselves in the same mire as AFL and crosstown rivals the Lions (eighth after 13 games). They remain stuck at Mount Everest base camp, having just returned from the summit.
A New Order?
The salary cap rarely works as intended, with the last eight premierships shared between three perennial powerhouses. However, the NRL-era landscape occasionally shakes itself into a new order. The Tigers’ 2005 title came between the early-2000s dominance of the Broncos, Roosters, and Bulldogs. South Sydney, North Queensland, and Cronulla (2014–16) claimed premierships as the Storm rebuilt and the Roosters recalibrated.
The drop-off of the top four from last year might signal a similar shift, given the emergence of the Dolphins, Warriors, and Manly this season with squads on the rise. But, as always, one team stands out: Penrith, who remain way out in front once more, after missing the top four for the first time in five years.
