Global Jet-Fuel Shortages and Middle East Conflict Impacting International Travel
Australians planning overseas holidays are being warned to prepare for potential travel disruptions. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has triggered global jet-fuel shortages, increasing the likelihood of sudden flight cancellations. This situation is affecting airlines and passengers worldwide, with significant implications for international travel from Australia.
The conflict began when the US and Israel conducted joint strikes on Iran at the end of February, prompting Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. This critical route for jet fuel out of the Gulf remains closed to shipping, leading the International Energy Agency to issue warnings about possible fuel shortages. The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents over 360 airlines, has advised passengers to expect flight cancellations in May.
For Australia, this means Qantas and Virgin Australia have both taken measures to reduce capacity and increase fares in response to rising fuel costs linked to the conflict. Virgin Australia recently announced that there will be fewer flights and higher fares across the second half of the 2025–26 financial year and into the next.
Unpredictable Situation and Flight Cancellations
Global aviation expert Geoffrey Thomas has warned that flights could be cut at the last minute due to the unpredictable nature of the situation. Environment Minister Murray Watt also cautioned that flight cancellations cannot be ruled out if the conflict continues. “We have a very fragile ceasefire that could change in an instant,” Thomas said. “It may erupt at any time.”
He emphasized the volatility of the current situation, stating that fuel availability is a major concern for airlines. “For instance, an airline like Cathay Pacific may have plenty of fuel in Hong Kong because China is one of the largest manufacturers of jet fuel. But when it gets to Europe, it has to be assured that it has the supplies needed to refuel in order to come back.”
Europe’s dependence on fuel sources, including Kuwait, is further complicated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. “Europe is more exposed at the moment than Asia is, which means trips from Australia are obviously a challenge,” Thomas said. Airlines operating long-haul routes through the Middle East, such as Qantas’ Perth to London service, are particularly affected, as they must fly additional distances to refuel in Singapore.
Preparing for International Travel
Thomas suggested that travelers consider avoiding long-haul trips and instead focus on domestic or Asia-Pacific destinations. “Put off that trip to Europe until next year and do something local,” he said. “Support the tourism industry like we did during the Covid pandemic.”
Dr David Beirman, an adjunct professor of tourism at the University of Technology Sydney, recommended avoiding the Middle East region specifically. He noted that traditional routes from Australia to Europe, Africa, and parts of Asia often pass through the Middle East, but many travelers are now opting for alternative routes via Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, and Tokyo.
The Importance of Travel Insurance
Both experts agreed that travel insurance is essential when planning any trip. “To not travel with insurance these days is pretty crazy,” Dr Beirman said. “Most policies will cover cancellation or major changes to an itinerary from a number of causes.”
If a return flight changes while overseas, airlines typically accommodate passengers. However, the response can vary depending on the airline. Some may offer credits for future travel, while others may allow the use of another carrier.
Key Considerations for Passengers
Dr Beirman stressed the importance of checking the rules and regulations of the airline before booking. “It’s good to check what the conditions are on insurance. Generally, they’ll cover accommodation that’s incurred because you’ve been delayed but not always.”
Another key detail for passengers is confirming that their airline is part of the International Air Transport Association (IATA). “If you’re waylaid and need accommodation because there’s been a change in timing, IATA member airlines will cover that accommodation,” Dr Beirman said. “If you’re traveling on a non-IATA airline, and about 80 per cent of airlines are members but a lot of the low cost carriers are not, you should be aware of that fact.”
He highlighted that IATA members must follow the association’s guidelines, such as covering accommodation during stopovers longer than eight hours. “A good example of this was when there were volcanic ash clouds from Iceland in 2010 and millions of people were waylaid,” the expert said. “If they were on non-IATA airlines, passengers were kind of stranded, but if they were flying on IATA airlines, and a delay occurred, they were accommodated.”
