Unlikely Scenarios in the Premier League Relegation Battle
The Premier League has seen some unexpected results over the weekend, with Tottenham, West Ham, and Nottingham Forest all securing victories. These outcomes have created a new level of uncertainty for several clubs, including Newcastle United, which is now facing an unexpected threat of relegation to the Championship.
A football data expert has analyzed the remaining fixtures of the season and outlined potential scenarios that could lead to Newcastle being relegated alongside Burnley and Wolves. While most fans are focused on the battle between Tottenham and West Ham, there are multiple paths that could see both teams survive in the top flight. However, other clubs like Crystal Palace, Leeds, and Nottingham Forest still have work to do to secure their safety.
The TikTok account aaronw_data has highlighted how Newcastle could be relegated with just 43 points, albeit under highly unlikely circumstances. The Magpies would need to lose to both Nottingham Forest and West Ham while only managing one point against either Brighton or Fulham in their final games of the season. At the same time, Roberto De Zerbi’s side would need to win three of their next four matches, defeating Leeds and two of Aston Villa, Chelsea, or Everton.
Is this team being relegated from the Premier League really as crazy as it seems with the results needed to happen? As of 25th April 2026. #footballtiktok #premierleague #prem #epl #relegation
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AaronW
Current Relegation Standings
Here is the current state of the relegation battle:
- Crystal Palace (43 pts)*
- Newcastle (42pts)
- Leeds (40pts)
- Nottingham Forest (39pts)
- West Ham (36pts)
- Tottenham (34pts)
- Burnley (20 pts – relegated)
- Wolves (17pts – relegated)
*game in hand
For Tottenham, the path to survival remains challenging. Their recent victory over Wolves was only their first Premier League win of 2026, but they have started to gain momentum. To avoid relegation, they would need to pick up enough points to close the six-goal gap with Newcastle.
Nottingham Forest would need to beat Newcastle and secure three more points in their final three games against Chelsea, Manchester United, or Bournemouth. Meanwhile, West Ham would play a crucial role in Newcastle’s potential relegation by defeating them at St James’ Park and drawing with Leeds on the last day of the season. They would also need to collect four points against Brentford and title-chasing Arsenal.
Leeds, on the other hand, would need to beat either Burnley or Brighton, lose to Tottenham, and draw with the Hammers to ensure their own safety and leave Newcastle in the bottom three at the end of the campaign.
If all these conditions are met, the final Premier League table would see Newcastle relegated on 43 points based on goal difference. Tottenham would finish 17th with West Ham 16th and Leeds 15th, both on 44 points. Nottingham Forest would climb to 14th on 45 points.
According to OPTA’s supercomputer, the chances of Newcastle being relegated are extremely low—just 0.7 per cent. Leeds and Nottingham Forest face slightly higher odds, at approximately one and two per cent respectively. However, the situation is much more dire for West Ham, with a 37.94 per cent chance of relegation, and Tottenham, who are considered the most likely to go down at 58.99 per cent.
Despite the low probability, the football data expert ran the numbers through a supercomputer and found that it took 2,650 simulations before Newcastle were relegated. He admitted he was surprised by how unlikely the scenario actually was.
“I’ve got a feeling it might be a bit more likely than that,” he said at the end of the video.
