Strong Performance for Neuren Pharmaceuticals
Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: NEU) shares have experienced a notable surge this week, driven by positive market reactions to the release of its quarterly sales update. Analysts from Bell Potter have expressed optimism about the company’s future performance, suggesting that there could be substantial upside potential for the ASX healthcare stock over the next 12 months.
Positive Sales Update and Market Reaction
Bell Potter highlighted that Daybue sales during the first quarter exceeded their initial forecasts. According to the broker, the commercial partner of Neuren, Acadia Pharmaceuticals, provided a sales update for Daybue in Q1 2026. The results showed sales of US$101.2 million, representing a 20% increase compared to the previous period and a slight decrease of 8% compared to the same quarter in the previous year. This was slightly below Acadia’s analyst expectations of US$104 million but still marked a significant improvement from the 11-14% growth seen in the last five quarters.
New Product Launch Boosts Sales
A key factor contributing to the sales growth is the launch of the new powder formulation called Daybue STIX. Bell Potter noted that the convenience and flexibility of this product are attracting treatment-naïve patients as well as those who had previously discontinued treatment. Approximately 30% of the 250 STIX prescriptions in Q1 were for patients who had not received treatment before or had stopped treatment, with a 1:1 split between these groups.
Confident Outlook for 2026
Bell Potter also pointed out that the guidance for Daybue sales in 2026 appears achievable following the strong start to the year. Acadia reaffirmed its bullish forecast for 2026, projecting sales between US$460 million and US$490 million, which implies a growth rate of 18-25%. The +20% growth in Q1 falls within this range, increasing confidence in meeting the target. While Neuren receives a 10-12% royalty on sales, the impact of minor fluctuations in sales is relatively negligible. Moreover, the royalties show no signs of decreasing in the near future.
Adjustments to Sales Forecasts
Despite the positive outlook, Bell Potter has adjusted its forecasts for Daybue sales in North America, while removing previously risk-adjusted European Union sales. A reversal of the European Medicines Agency’s decision in June is not expected, although it would be a welcome surprise.
Buy Rating and Price Target
Bell Potter has maintained its buy rating and $22.00 price target for Neuren Pharmaceuticals. With the current share price at $13.05, this implies potential upside of nearly 70% for investors over the next 12 months.
Key Catalysts for Neuren
The broker emphasized that Neuren’s primary focus is on activating more than 20 clinical sites in the US and enrolling 160 patients for its Phase 3 trial of NNZ-2591 in Phelan McDermid syndrome. The results from this trial are expected to be a defining event for the company, though they are still some time away, with an anticipated readout at the end of 2027 pending recruitment. Before then, updates on NNZ-2591’s other indications, such as Pitt Hopkins and HIE, are expected in the second half of 2026.
Investment Considerations
Before investing in Neuren Pharmaceuticals, it is essential to consider various factors. While the company shows promise, individual investment decisions should be based on thorough research and personal financial goals. Analysts often provide insights into potential opportunities, but it is crucial to evaluate all available information and consult with financial advisors when necessary.
