The Resilience of the Cruise Industry Amid Health Outbreaks
Recent outbreaks of hantavirus and norovirus on cruise ships have captured public attention, but industry leaders and travel experts suggest that these incidents are unlikely to significantly impact the growing popularity of cruise vacations. Despite reports of three passengers aboard the MV Hondius passing away due to hantavirus after a stop in Argentina and a recent norovirus outbreak on a British ship in Bordeaux, France, the cruise industry remains optimistic about its future.
According to Rob Kwortnik, an associate professor at Cornell University’s Nolan School of Hotel Administration, the cruise consumer appears to be “Teflon” when it comes to such health-related stories. This resilience is reflected in the industry’s continued growth, with estimates suggesting that 38.3 million people will travel on ocean-going ships this year—a 4% increase from the previous year’s record of 37.2 million passengers.
Industry Outlook and Sales Trends
The Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), an industry trade group, released an annual forecast in mid-April that highlighted the expected rise in cruise travelers. While specific sales figures remain confidential, some companies have not responded to inquiries about potential impacts on bookings. Major cruise lines such as Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, and Carnival have not provided comments on customer demand.
Oceanwide Expeditions, the Dutch company that owns the MV Hondius, has stated that it does not anticipate any changes to its operations. The company is set to launch a new cruise from Keflavik, Iceland, on May 29.
Veteran cruisers have also expressed confidence in their plans. Jenni Fielding, a popular cruise blogger known as Cruise Mummy, has eight cruises booked and plans to book more. She emphasizes that cruising is as safe as any other holiday, provided travelers follow health guidelines and stay informed.
Scott Eddy, a hospitality influencer currently on a cruise in Monaco, noted that fellow passengers have not raised concerns about the hantavirus outbreak. He believes that the average traveler understands that such incidents are isolated and not unique to cruise travel.
Booking Trends and Consumer Confidence
CruiseCompete.com, an online marketplace for vacation planning, reported a 31.7% increase in cabin bookings during the first half of May compared to the same period last year. CEO Bob Levinstein confirmed that there has been no drop in demand, attributing this to the fact that most cruises are booked months in advance.
Levinstein explained that norovirus, a highly contagious stomach bug, is often conflated with cruise travel in the minds of many Americans. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control requires ships to disclose when 3% or more passengers report symptoms. On a ship with 5,000 passengers, an illness affecting 3% may go unnoticed by most travelers, especially experienced cruisers.
Long-Term Impacts and Industry Growth
While current news cycles rarely affect passengers’ decisions to join a cruise, Kwortnik pointed out that trips are typically booked at least six months in advance. “People who are booking cruises tomorrow are thinking about the holidays,” he said.
During a recent conference call with investors, Switzerland-based cruise line Viking noted a brief softening in demand for its river cruises during the first quarter of the year following the Iran war. However, demand quickly rebounded, with 92% of its 2026 cruises and 38% of its 2027 cruises already booked.
Andrew Coggins, a cruise industry analyst and professor at Pace University’s Lubin School of Business, suggested that even if some travelers are unsettled by recent news, they are unlikely to receive refunds. “If there’s any impact on demand, it would be in the long term. If you’re cruising in the next few months, you’re past the point at which you can get your money back,” he said.
Lessons from the Past and Future Prospects
Coggins noted that the hantavirus story gained significant attention because it reminded people of the Diamond Princess, which was quarantined off Japan in early 2020 after the coronavirus was detected on board. The pandemic severely impacted the cruise industry, leading to the shutdown of many smaller operators. It wasn’t until 2022 that the industry began to recover.
Although there are still fewer cruise passengers from China and Japan than before the pandemic, Coggins emphasized that demand elsewhere is booming. New ships are being ordered through 2037, with cruise lines aiming to expand their offerings with new destinations and features.
Growing Appeal Across Generations
One reason for the continued growth of the cruise industry is its broad appeal across generations and income levels. A recent U.S. survey by Bank of America found that Generation Z and millennials were the most likely to plan a cruise in the next 12 months. Additionally, cruise spending increased for lower-income households, even as they reduced spending on airfare and lodging.
Kwortnik highlighted the value that cruising offers to travelers. “On average, it costs more just to stay at a hotel in Miami than it does to sail on a cruise out of Miami – and the cruise includes lodging, multiple destinations, food, entertainment, and transportation all in the fare,” he said.
