The Queensland Maroons faced a challenging start in the series opener, and now they will have to work harder to regain control. The match will take place at the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground as the Maroons aim to prevent the NSW Blues from securing the State of Origin shield in a straight series.
Despite entering Game 1 as favorites, the Blues were outplayed for much of the game. An early struggle saw them concede three tries within the first 20 minutes. Poor handling and penalties allowed Queensland to launch several attacking plays. Sam Walker, who is expected to be a future Maroon, made an impressive debut, while Kalyn Ponga was involved in everything. The forwards also had their way during the match.
However, the game took a turn when Cameron Murray came onto the field. Although the Blues weren’t performing well, their scoring dried up. A crucial moment occurred with 22 minutes remaining when Kalyn Ponga was sent off after tackling Tolutau Koula. From that point on, the Blues struggled to regain momentum. Despite some missed opportunities, they managed to score three tries and head to Melbourne with the lead.
For the Blues, winning the series in a straight set might be necessary. If the Maroons gain momentum heading into Game 3 in Brisbane, it could prove too difficult for the Blues to overcome.
The Maroons also had their challenges in Game 1, but the key factor was Kalyn Ponga not being sent off. However, there are questions about their selection choices. It’s unlikely they will benefit as much from dropped balls this time, given the opposition’s performance in the opening exchanges.
With more questions than answers surrounding both teams as they head into Game 2, and both coaches under pressure, the stakes are high as the game’s showcase moves to the self-proclaimed, though not widely accepted, sporting capital of the world.
Team news
NSW Blues
1. James Tedesco
2. Brian To’o
5. Tolutau Koula
4. Kotoni Staggs
19. Mark Nawaqanitawase
6. Mitchell Moses
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Payne Haas
9. Reece Robson
10. Mitch Barnett
11. Hudson Young
12. Dylan Lucas
13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange:
14. Cameron Murray
15. Victor Radley
16. Addin Fonua-Blake
17. Apisai Koroisau
18. Ethan Strange
21. Jack Bostock
For the second consecutive camp, the Blues have been forced into late changes, with Penrith Panthers star outside back Casey McLean ruled out. His absence means Mark Nawaqanitawase comes into the starting side on the wing, Tolutau Koula moves into the centres, and Jack Bostock is added to the bench despite playing for the Dolphins on Friday.
Elsewhere, Laurie Daley has taken the risk of playing Mitchell Moses at five-eighth, moving Ethan Strange to the bench despite his strong performance in Sydney. Payne Haas returns to the starting side at prop, while Addin Fonua-Blake shifts to the bench. Jacob Saifiti drops out of the side, and Dylan Lucas starts in the second-row, which can only be described as a shock. Haumole Olakau’atu sits as the 20th man, while the injured Blayke Brailey is replaced by a returning Apisai Koroisau for Game 2.
QLD Maroons
1. Kalyn Ponga
2. Selwyn Cobbo
3. Robert Toia
4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
5. Jojo Fifita
6. Cameron Munster
7. Sam Walker
8. Tom Flegler
9. Harry Grant
10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
11. Briton Nikora
12. Kurt Capewell
13. Reuben Cotter
Interchange:
14. Max Plath
15. Lindsay Collins
16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki
17. Trent Loiero
18. Reece Walsh
19. Murray Taulagi
For the second straight Origin, Queensland enters the game more prepared and stable. No late changes have affected their preparation. They aren’t entirely without a shuffled side, however. The injury to Patrick Carrigan is significant, with Kulikefu Finefeuiaki coming into the side as his replacement. As a result of a second-rower replacing a middle, Billy Slater has made positional swaps. Max Plath started at lock in Game 1 but is benched this time to give the Maroons better versatility from the pine. Reuben Cotter moves from the second-row to lock, while Briton Nikora, possibly bafflingly given his Game 1 performance, is rewarded with a promotion to the starting side on the edge.
Ezra Mam and injured Gehamat Shibasaki, who was surprisingly not used in Game 1 when Kalyn Ponga was sent off, are both out, with Reece Walsh and Murray Taulagi as new faces on the bench.
History
Overall head-to-head record:
Played 133, Queensland 60, New South Wales 61, drawn 2
Overall series record:
Played 44, Queensland 25, New South Wales 17, drawn 2
Last five series:
QLD 3 – NSW 2
Record in Melbourne:
Played 10, NSW 6, QLD 4
Record at Melbourne Cricket Ground:
Played 6, NSW 5, QLD 1
Keys to the game
Will Reece Walsh be used?
It’s unusual to discuss the keys to an Origin match with a player who may not make it onto the field, but that’s simply the level Reece Walsh can play at. If this game is faster-paced than Game 1, with more six-agains and more free-flowing play from each team, then this bench role is custom-made for Walsh. Billy Slater will be desperately trying to hold a spot in his 17 until late in the contest, because if Walsh can get out there in the final 30 or so minutes, the Blues simply won’t have an answer. At his best, Walsh was the key man in pushing the Broncos to the premiership last year, and was a walk-up starter for the Kangaroos. It goes without saying he has been some way off his best so far in 2026, but that doesn’t mean he can’t find it again, and if he does, that last half an hour will be a bloodbath for the Blues, who again have limited replacement potential in the middle third, the area Walsh will attack against tired legs.
Is Mitchell Moses up to 80 minutes?
It doesn’t really matter which way you try to skin it or talk about it, Blues boss Laurie Daley has taken an enormous risk in picking Mitchell Moses. Probably one he didn’t have to take either. Moses was the preferred pick before Game 1. Some agreed, some disagreed. In the end, he never got a chance to show if it was the right pick, and Ethan Strange stepped up to prove beyond all reasonable doubt he has got what it takes to have a long career at this level. It’s pretty rare you’d put your hand up as a potential man of the match only to get dropped for Game 2, but that is what has happened, with Daley now talking about playing Strange in the second-row to get him on the field. While the Blues camp claim Moses is ready to go and 100 per cent, there has to be some question marks about his hamstrings, which have been dodgy for some time now. If he breaks down, the Blues will have to burn an interchange on a half in what is likely to be a faster-paced game – that’s a problem in itself. Moses is a champion though. He has always had strong games in Sky Blue, and leading into the game, you’d have to think him lasting through it and showing no or limited signs of rust is going to be a big deciding factor.
Can Queensland shut down Cameron Murray?
Maybe the biggest issue for Queensland in Game 1 was the way the game changed once Cameron Murray was on the park. The game’s best lock was in everything for the Blues during his hour on the ground at both ends of the park, and was criminally underrated by most at fulltime. He brings excellent defensive work rate, great rugby league vision, and one of the quickest play the balls in the competition which will only get more dangerous if this game is played at a rapid pace with more six-agains than were on offer in Game 1. Queensland would have likely been turning to Patrick Carrigan off the bench to shut Murray down, but with his injury, and the replacement being Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, it now likely leaves Reuben Cotter needing one of the games of his career in the middle. It’s for this reason some were suggesting Tom Gilbert with an aggressive attitude might have been the way to go at the selection table. The issue for Cotter, who has been moved to lock for the trip to Melbourne, is he will already have 20 minutes in the legs when Murray gets onto the park. A huge, huge job for him.
Will the Blues regret dropping Olakau’atu
If you thought the Mitchell Moses call up was a strange one for the Blues, then the dropping of Haumole Olakau’atu flat out didn’t make any sense. He had deficiencies in Game 1, but the pros to his game more than made up for it. That his kick chase was floated as a potential issue in the media last week just shows the amount of clutching at straws going on. He led the Blues in that department, especially early, putting a mountain of pressure on Kalyn Ponga. The decision to play Dylan Lucas has been made though. Whether it pays off remains to be seen, but Olakau’atu brings size and aggression that isn’t coachable. Most would have had Lucas in the side somewhere leading up to Game 1, but this straight swap feels unforced and poorly thought out.
Prediction
There are just too many question marks for the Blues. They weren’t good enough for most of Game 1, haven’t changed much, and can’t rely on Queensland having a player sent off again. That said, the Maroons need a fast start before Cameron Murray gets onto the ground if they are going to win. It’s pretty easy to expect however the game will be far more open than Game 1. Sam Walker, who proved beyond all reasonable doubt, he is up to this level, could prove the difference as the Blues try to stay with them at both ends of the park. More points, more six-agains, more free-flowing footy, and ultimately, a Queensland win is on the radar here, but there isn’t a heap to split the two sides. Queensland by 4.
Key game information: NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons, Game 1, 2026
Kick-off:
Wednesday, June 17, 8:05pm (AEST)
Venue:
Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
TV:
Live, Channel 9 from 7pm (AEST)
Online:
Live, 9Now from 7pm (AEST)
Betting:
Blues
$1.85,
Maroons
$1.95
Match officials
Referee:
Ashley Klein
Touch judges:
Matt Noyen and Phil Henderson
Bunker official:
Chris Butler
