The Kentucky Derby: A Wide Open Race
The Kentucky Derby, known for its chaotic start with twenty horses bursting from the gate in a mad dash, has long been dubbed the “most exciting two minutes in sports.” This year’s 152nd running, however, is particularly unpredictable. Even experienced race caller Larry Collmus, who typically focuses on the frontrunner for NBC’s television broadcast, admits to being unsure about this year’s favorite.
“I don’t know who the favorite is going to be,” Collmus said. “I guess we’ll find out. It’s wide open this year.”
Todd Pletcher’s Renegade was initially listed as the favorite, but the top spot could easily shift to Brad Cox’s Commandment or Further Ado, or Bill Mott’s Chief Wallabee, before the 20-horse field leaves the gate. The Triple Crown’s first leg is so open that at least a half-dozen horses have a legitimate chance to win the 152nd running on Saturday.
A Challenging Post Position
Renegade, set as the 4-1 favorite on the morning line, drew the inside No. 1 post position on the rail. No horse has won the Derby from there since Ferdinand in 1986. “It’s not the one we would have chosen,” Pletcher said. “It’s not ideal, but it’s what we got and we’ll do the best we can with it.”
Pletcher noted that when he reviewed replays of every race since the new starting gate was introduced in 2020, he observed that horses on the rail were often negatively affected. The last horse to break from the very inside and finish in the money was Lookin At Lee in 2017.
Irad Ortiz Jr. is expected to guide Renegade through the 1 1/4-mile journey around the dirt track at Churchill Downs. Although Ortiz has yet to win the Kentucky Derby, he is considered one of the best jockeys in the world. “Irad’s riding in great form right now, so they just got to work it out,” Pletcher said. “I think his natural running style is to kind of settle and make one run like he has been doing, so we’re not looking to change that.”
Cox’s Trio Faces Challenges
Brad Cox entered three horses but is down to two after ruling out Fulleffort due to a chip in the colt’s left hind ankle. Mark Casse’s Silent Tactic and Kenny McPeek’s Right to Party were also scratched, adding Great White, Ocelli, and Robusta to the field on the far outside.
Commandment and Further Ado each have shown the ability to finish first in this deep class of 3-year-olds. Commandment has won four in a row, including the Florida Derby, while Further Ado bounced back from a lengthy absence to win the Blue Grass Stakes. They will now face rivals who have thrived across the country.
“There’s a lot of talent, obviously, coming from different regions, whether it’s California, Florida, Louisiana, New York,” Cox said. “I do feel like the horses in Florida were definitely the strongest region this year.”
Bob Baffert’s Potente finished second to So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby in Southern California, and Litmus Test comes from Oaklawn Park in Arkansas. Baffert, tied for the most Derby victories among trainers, could take sole possession of the record if one of his long shots wins.
With Danon Bourbon and homebred Wonder Dean, Japan again has a strong presence two years after Forever Young was a close third. The country is still searching for its first Derby win.
No Super Horse in Sight
It does not look like there is a super horse in this field capable of sweeping the Triple Crown like Justify in 2018 and American Pharoah in 2015. “There’s by no means an American Pharoah in here, at least up to this point, going into the race,” Brown said. “Now, whoever wins this race and goes on, maybe one emerges and turns into one of the best 3-year-olds in the last few years. Who knows?”
The bigger question is whether any of them would get the chance, given the reluctance of owners and trainers to run a horse two weeks later in the Preakness Stakes. This year’s Preakness takes place at Laurel Park while Pimlico Race Course is rebuilt. Two of the past four Kentucky Derby winners did not run in the Preakness, which could soon move from the third to the fourth weekend in May to attract more horses.
