The Coaching Vacancies at Essendon and Carlton
The AFL’s two most volatile big clubs are at it again, with both on the hunt for new coaches as we reach the halfway point of the 2026 season. Michael Voss walked away from Carlton following round nine, and Essendon sacked Brad Scott just a fortnight later. They sit 15th and 18th on the ladder respectively, but which vacancy would be more appealing to prospective coaching candidates?
It’s a vague question, but one everybody in the mix will have to ask themselves over the next few months. You’ve got Essendon, who is looking for its fourth coach of the 2020s on one hand, and Carlton, who hasn’t kept a senior coach for more than six seasons this century, on the other.
However, being the person who leads either club back to the top of the mountain would be extremely tempting and put you in the history books. If you were given your pick of the jobs, which would you take? Let’s break it down.
The Process
Obviously, a key factor whenever you’re going for a job is the figures running the process. Neither team has named a panel yet to help select the coach, but we know who will ultimately make the final decision. For Essendon, that will be president Andrew Welsh and CEO Tim Roberts. For both, this will be their first time picking a senior coach. Both were on the board when Scott was appointed, but were not the chief decision makers.
Now, the spotlight is on them; and it’s been immediately complicated by the groundswell surrounding former Essendon coach James Hird, who has put his hat in the ring for the job. Hird coached the Bombers between 2011 and 2015, but resigned amid the turmoil of the supplements saga that engulfed the club. Despite this, club legends and many fans are clamouring for him to get a second chance.
If you’re a former AFL coach like Ken Hinkley or John Longmire, or a budding assistant coach in the mix like a James Kelly or a Hayden Skipworth, in the back of your mind you know you’re competing with one of the club’s all-time greats and one many fans are actively rooting for. You’d question putting yourself through the process if Hird is automatically in pole position.
And if you’re Welsh, you’ve got to weigh the gravity and emotion of a Hird return up against every other candidate and what they bring to the table. It certainly muddies the water for all involved, particularly those applying for the role.
Carlton’s process meanwhile will largely be run by CEO Graham Wright. The veteran administrator helped shape Hawthorn’s three-peat dynasty in the 2010s before joining Collingwood in 2021 and hiring coach Craig McRae, who would lead the club to the 2023 flag. Wright clearly has a huge experience edge on Essendon’s team, having run the process to appoint McRae only a few years ago. That search started with 90 candidates and was whittled all the way down to the man who would become Collingwood’s next premiership coach.
The Blues are, in all likelihood, heading down the path of a first-time head coach, though someone like Longmire could race to the top of the list if he were to put his hand up.
Verdict: Carlton has the experience edge, while Hird has muddied the waters at Essendon
The Baggage
These two teams would likely lead the AFL in ‘baggage’. Carlton’s entire 21st century has been marred by coach axings, wooden spoons, the salary cap scandal and intervention of the board in key decisions. Essendon meanwhile doesn’t have as many wooden spoons, but has the lingering pain of the supplement saga from the 2010s and the pull internally and externally back towards Hird.
The Dons will also likely have the headache of Zach Merrett requesting a trade for a second straight season at the end of 2026. Unless Patrick Cripps opts to head home to Perth, it’s hard to imagine Carlton finding themselves in a similar boat. Cripps would also likely have the club’s blessing, unlike Merrett.
You also have two of the most passionate and vocal fan bases in the AFL to navigate if you do land the job. Regardless of whether you land at Essendon or Carlton, the pressure will be immense and recent history suggests you are rarely safe for long if things go south.
Verdict: Not ideal either way, but Merrett tips things slightly towards Carlton
The Emerging Talent and Draft Assets
Of the two teams, Essendon has hit the draft harder across the last few years. This makes sense when you consider they have been publicly rebuilding while the Blues have been chasing finals. At 24 or younger, the Bombers have Sam Durham, Nick Bryan, Zach Reid, Archie Perkins, Archie May, Elijah Tsatas, Nate Caddy, Archie Roberts, Isaac Kako, Archer Day-Wicks, Dyson Sharp, Jacob Farrow, Sullivan Robey and mid-season draft No.1 pick Jaxon Artemis.
Of that group, Caddy looks like a future superstar, Robey has enormous upside, Farrow has shown great signs in his first season, Kako and Roberts will be long-term players and Durham, Perkins and Reid are established players, but not quite stars. A new coach will have a lot to work with, not to mention a top two pick in the 2026 draft and a promising father-son candidate in 2027 with Koby Bewick.
Carlton meanwhile will be enormously confident in Jagga Smith and Harry Dean, who they’ve added with top five picks in the draft in successive seasons. Both look like long term stars. They have some decent young pieces in Ollie Hollands, Lachie Cowan, Matt Carroll, Harry O’Farrell, Jack Ison, Jesse Motlop, Cooper Lord, Talor Byrne and Billy Wilson, but none you’d project as a future All-Australian at this early stage.
The ace up the Blues’ sleeve is Cody Walker, a projected top two pick in the 2026 draft who will join the club under father-son rules. They also hold Sydney’s first round draft picks in 2026 and 2027 following the Charlie Curnow trade, giving them a clear asset advantage over Essendon, who turned down a similar package for Zach Merrett. However, right now, Essendon has more young talent to work with for their next senior coach. The concern will be keeping Tasmania’s hands off a talent like Caddy.
Verdict: Essendon has more young talent to work with and get excited about
The Stars
Presuming Merrett departs, the top end of Essendon’s list is what needs the most work. The Bombers lack A-graders who perform consistently, a hole that will likely be filled by developing players over time. Their best defender, Jordan Ridley, can’t get his body right and seems likely to join Merrett in requesting a trade out of the club for a second straight season. Nic Martin has emerged as a star player in his own right, but won’t be seen until 2027 as he rehabs a torn ACL.
Beyond that, you have established players in Kyle Langford, Darcy Parish, Mason Redman, Andrew McGrath, Ben McKay, Xavier Duursma and Jye Caldwell, but nobody you would project to make an All-Australian team any time soon. Carlton has overall an older list. Merrett is actually Essendon’s only player currently in his 30s. The Blues meanwhile have Nick Haynes, Adam Saad, Nic Newman, Zach Williams, Mitch McGovern, Cripps, Blake Acres, George Hewett and Marc Pittonet over 30.
They will likely make significant cuts to that group at the end of the season, be it trades or delistings. However, they have a solid top-end spine with Jacob Weitering, Harry McKay, Sam Walsh and Cripps, all of whom are A-graders at their best. They added Ben Ainsworth, Ollie Florent and Will Hayward in the trade period as established players in their prime, and all three have comfortably slot into the club’s best 18.
It’s probably more likely Carlton hits the ground running in 2027 with a new coach, while Essendon may be more of a development project with a few more years of rebuilding. Having said that, the Blues have been turning over their list since the end of 2024 and will likely continue to do so. They have a more complex path back to the top given the age profile of their list.
Verdict: Carlton’s established stars are comfortably better than Essendon’s
Final Verdict
The complexities around the Essendon vacancy, given the involvement of Hird, Merrett’s likely departure and the inexperience of those making the call make for a muddier process. Having said that, the next coach of the Bombers will likely get a year or two to rebuild the club strategically while continuing to add young talent, potentially including the No.1 pick in the 2026 draft. Add that to Caddy, Farrow, Sharp, Robey, Roberts and Kako and you have a lot to work with.
Carlton meanwhile has a more trustworthy process in place and more quality players ready to hit the ground running in 2027, but will need to cut experienced players to continue shifting the list younger. Their pathway back to a premiership, in that regard, is more complicated than Essendon’s linear rebuild.
While the incoming Dons coach may get that grace period, Blues fans will likely have somewhat higher expectations for 2027 and 2028. Both will be hoping to swing the pendulum their way over the next few years by landing a big fish in free agency.
