Nigeria’s Crude Oil Imports from the US Surge in 2025, Highlighting Domestic Supply Challenges
Nigeria has witnessed a dramatic escalation in its crude oil purchases from the United States during 2025. Over the first ten months of the year, the African nation imported a substantial 42.13 million barrels of crude from the US, according to data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This figure represents a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 26.34 million barrels when compared to the 15.79 million barrels imported during the corresponding period in 2024.
The surge translates to a remarkable percentage increase of roughly 167 percent, signalling a profound shift in Nigeria’s oil sourcing strategies within a single year. This nearly threefold reliance on US crude underscores not only rising demand but also persistent structural pressures within Nigeria’s domestic oil supply chain.
A Year of Shifting Import Patterns
The import landscape in 2024 presented a more modest and uneven picture. Total volumes for the first ten months stood at 15.79 million barrels, with monthly inflows generally remaining below four million barrels. A notable dip occurred in June 2024, when imports plummeted to a mere 1.04 million barrels. This weaker performance in 2024 stands in stark contrast to the robust and sustained import profile observed in 2025.
A month-by-month analysis of 2025 reveals the escalating momentum of Nigeria’s US crude imports:
- January: No recorded imports in either year.
- February: Imports stood at 3.11 million barrels, slightly lower than the 3.61 million barrels imported in February 2024. This initial softness proved to be a temporary anomaly.
- March: Imports surged to 5.25 million barrels, a significant departure from the previous year’s pattern and exceeding March 2024 volumes by nearly 1.83 million barrels.
- April: Imports saw a slight decrease to 2.04 million barrels but still surpassed the 1.54 million barrels recorded in April 2024.
- May: Nigeria imported 3.79 million barrels, an increase of approximately 1.71 million barrels compared to May 2024.
- June: This month marked the most significant surge, with imports jumping to 9.16 million barrels. This volume was nearly nine times higher than the 1.04 million barrels imported in June 2024 and constituted over one-fifth of Nigeria’s total US crude purchases for the first ten months of 2025. This figure signalled a sharp acceleration in demand.
- July: Imports remained elevated at 4.17 million barrels, marginally exceeding the 4.10 million barrels recorded in July 2024.
- August: Another strong increase was observed, with Nigeria importing 6.24 million barrels, one of the highest monthly figures for the year.
- September & October: The upward trend continued, with each month recording imports of 4.19 million barrels, indicating steady demand towards the end of the analysed period.
The overall monthly pattern for 2025 demonstrates greater consistency and higher peak volumes compared to 2024, which was characterised by lower and more volatile import levels.
Drivers Behind the Import Surge
Analysts attribute this sharp year-on-year increase primarily to Nigeria’s growing dependence on imported crude to satisfy the feedstock requirements of its refineries, including those privately owned. With 42.13 million barrels imported from the US within the first ten months of 2025, Nigeria’s imports have nearly tripled compared to the same period in 2024. If current import levels are maintained, the full-year total is expected to climb even higher.
This surge strongly suggests that the Dangote Refinery, a major private sector project, is entering a steady ramp-up phase. The refinery has shown a preference for US light sweet crude, which is highly compatible with complex refining processes.
The Paradox of an Oil Producer Importing Crude
The increasing reliance on imported US crude barrels highlights a long-standing paradox for Nigeria. Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer and a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria has historically exported its crude while simultaneously importing refined petroleum products. This situation has largely been due to the underperformance and prolonged disrepair of its state-owned refineries.
The Dangote Refinery was anticipated to alleviate this issue by utilising domestic crude oil, thereby reducing import dependency. However, the latest data indicate that it is still relying on foreign supply to optimise its operations.
Domestic Supply Shortfalls and Refiner Demands
The Nigerian Federal Government previously disclosed that a total of 67,657,559 barrels of crude oil were supplied to local refiners for processing between January and August 2025. This figure, corroborated by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), underscores the ongoing challenges in bridging the crude allocation gap for indigenous refineries, even as Nigeria’s production levels rise.
According to Eniola Akinkuotu, Head of Media and Strategic Communications at the NUPRC, these barrels were delivered to a range of refining facilities, including modular and state-owned plants such as Waltersmith, Aradel Energy, and those under the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC). “A total of 67,657,559 barrels were delivered to local refiners between January and August this year. All refiners got that amount within the eight-month period,” Akinkuotu stated.
However, the volume supplied fell significantly short of refiners’ stated demand. Local processors had requested 123,480,500 barrels for the first half of 2025, meaning they received approximately 55.82 million barrels, or about 45 percent, less than what was required to meet their refining targets.
Earlier in 2024, the NUPRC had projected that refineries like Port Harcourt, Warri, Dangote, and others would require 770,500 barrels per day. This translates to 23.8 million barrels per month, or 123.4 million barrels for the first half of 2025. Actual deliveries, however, have not aligned with these forecasts. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s crude and condensate production increased to 1.63 million barrels per day in August 2025, with a substantial portion still destined for export.
The Dollar Dilemma and US Crude Preference
For months, refinery owners have voiced concerns about the difficulties in accessing crude oil domestically. They allege that producers often prefer selling to international buyers who offer payment in US dollars, leaving domestic refiners to contend with the pressures of currency exchange rates.
Reports have indicated that the $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos is heavily reliant on US imports to supply its processing units. In July 2025, the refinery reportedly imported an average of 10 million barrels, signalling an increasing dependence on US feedstock, despite a naira-for-crude deal with the Federal Government.
Data from commodities analytics firm Kpler revealed that in July, US barrels constituted approximately 60 percent of the Dangote refinery’s crude intake of 590,000 barrels per day. Nigerian grades accounted for the remaining 40 percent. Kpler noted that while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) had held a significant share in Dangote’s import slate since March, July marked the first time US crude surpassed Nigerian supply. This shift was attributed to a combination of factors, including the persistent domestic sourcing challenges faced by the refinery.
Kpler’s analysis for July showed that US crude made up a substantial 370,000 barrels per day (60 percent) of the total imports, while Nigerian grades, primarily comprising Amenam, Bonny Light, and Escravos, accounted for 220,000 barrels per day (40 percent).
