The Debate Over Free Public Transport
Making public transport free may seem like a straightforward way to gain public support, but recent research suggests that it might not be enough to encourage drivers to switch from their cars. While the idea of fare-free travel has intuitive appeal—after all, if it’s free, more people are likely to use it—the evidence is more complex. This issue has become increasingly relevant in states like Tasmania and Victoria, where temporary free travel policies have been introduced in response to rising fuel costs.
In Tasmania, passengers will continue to ride free until July 1, a policy that has sparked discussions about making it permanent. Similarly, Victoria has implemented free public transport until the end of May, followed by half-price fares for the rest of the year. Both states have seen an increase in public transport usage, but the question remains: does free travel actually encourage more people to leave their cars behind?
The Research Findings
Associate Professor Milad Haghani, who studies transport behavior at the University of Melbourne, explains that while people are rational economic decision-makers and tend to use more of something when it becomes cheaper, there’s more to the equation than just price. He and his colleagues examined whether free or heavily discounted public transport could persuade motorists to shift from cars to public transport.
The team surveyed around 2,000 people across Victoria, Queensland, and New South Wales during a period of high fuel prices. They found that while many people reported driving less, only a small percentage had switched from cars to public transport. In Victoria, where public transport was free, 26.3% of respondents said they had shifted some commuting trips to public transport. In New South Wales, where full fares were still in place, the figure was 23.7%. This small difference suggests that fare pricing alone may not be the key factor in encouraging people to change their habits.
Beyond Price: The Importance of Accessibility and Reliability
According to Associate Professor Haghani, factors such as access, coverage, reliability, and travel time play a more significant role in influencing people’s choices. “It’s really hard to break the habit,” he said. “It takes a lot more than just announcing sometimes free public transport to shift people.”
This point is particularly relevant in places like Tasmania, where the public transport network is limited, buses are often unreliable, and many regional or outer-suburban residents have little meaningful access to public transport. In such areas, the benefits of fare-free travel tend to flow disproportionately to those living in areas with better service.
Separate research from the University of Sydney supports this view. Professor Matthew Beck and his team studied Queensland’s 50-cent transport fares and found that while these policies provide equity gains for low-income households, students, and older people, they mostly boost travel among existing passengers rather than attracting new ones.
The Cost of Free Public Transport
The cost of implementing free or reduced public transport can be significant. For example, in Queensland, the 50-cent fare reduced monthly revenue from $38.5 million to around $7-10 million, leaving a gap of roughly $29.7 million per month. Even with increased public transport use during fuel price shocks, this loss is not fully offset.
Governments must cover the shortfall through taxes or subsidies, which can be a challenge. In Tasmania, the Greens estimate that free public transport would cost about $17 million a year. Meanwhile, in Victoria, a single month of fare-free travel was estimated to cost at least $71 million.
A Call for Better Infrastructure
Associate Professor Haghani argues that money spent on free transport could be better used to improve the size and reliability of existing public transport networks. He believes that the current experiment with free travel could be an opportunity for people to explore their local transport options, potentially leading to long-term changes in behavior.
“Even if you make them free, they might stay with the services, regardless of whether you make them free,” he said. This suggests that while free public transport may have short-term benefits, long-term success depends on addressing the underlying issues of accessibility, coverage, and reliability.
