The political landscape in Dadeldhura, the long-standing electoral stronghold of veteran leader Sher Bahadur Deuba, has fallen into an unusual quietude. This stillness follows the Election Commission’s formal recognition of the Gagan Thapa-led Nepali Congress faction, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty in a district that has been synonymous with Deuba and his party’s electoral symbol for decades. Tea shops and eateries, once vibrant hubs for discussions about Deuba, Thapa, and the party’s future, are now subdued. Congress activists affiliated with Deuba are visibly disheartened and hesitant to voice their opinions, as questions about Deuba’s political future dominate private conversations among grassroots cadres.
Key questions circulating among the party faithful include:
* Will Deuba contest the upcoming elections under the Congress’s traditional tree symbol and four-star flag?
* Will he opt for a different political platform?
* Or will he seek reconciliation with the Thapa camp and run as the official party candidate?
Bhim Bahadur Saud, the district president of the Nepali Congress, admitted to a lack of clear answers. “I don’t know anything yet, and I don’t want to say anything,” he stated, suggesting that some clarity might emerge by Sunday. For many long-serving Congress leaders in Dadeldhura, the prospect of a party split is a source of significant pain. Kailash Kumar Pandey, an area chair, expressed his distress, noting, “Trying to separate Deuba from the Congress at what could be his final moments in politics is deeply distressing. He is a leader who has devoted his entire life to the party. Such leaders must be properly valued.”
Kalawati Devi Bohara, a general convention representative of the Congress, echoed these sentiments, warning that any attempt to sideline Deuba in the name of generational change would be unacceptable to the voters of Dadeldhura.
Shifting Mood Beyond Party Lines
However, away from the formal party structures, a different sentiment is gradually taking root. In villages and market centres, conversations are increasingly shifting away from internal Congress rivalries towards more pressing local concerns such as infrastructure development, healthcare accessibility, employment opportunities, and a growing weariness with consistently voting for the same individuals.
With the government having officially set March 5th as the election date, leaving a little over six weeks for campaigning, Dadeldhura has yet to exhibit any discernible festive atmosphere typically associated with election periods. Many potential candidates continue to remain in Kathmandu, and local party offices are largely deserted.
In Ghatal, a village located four kilometres from the district headquarters, Ratan Singh Bista, an octogenarian who has never missed an election, sat warming himself in the winter sun. He indicated that three generations of his family were prepared to vote again. “I won’t stop voting, but those who win never come back to listen to our problems,” Bista remarked, suggesting a willingness to consider a new face if one emerged. His son, Chet Bahadur, who manages a small grocery shop, offered a more direct assessment: “Whether we vote or not, the village remains the same. We are tired of seeing leaders tilt one way today and another tomorrow.”
Persistent Issues Despite Long-Standing Representation
Like many residents of Dadeldhura, Chet Bahadur’s frustration stems from the persistent issues of inadequate infrastructure and limited livelihood prospects. Despite Sher Bahadur Deuba’s seven electoral victories and his preparations for an eighth, the Bhimdatta Highway, a crucial artery connecting Dadeldhura with Dhangadhi, remains in a state of disrepair. Furthermore, villagers continue to migrate to India through the Parshuram border point in search of work.
Healthcare remains another significant area of concern. Dadeldhura is home to a 300-bed federal hospital intended to serve seven hill districts in the Sudurpaschim Province. However, according to hospital spokesperson Tanka Panta, none of the 19 approved specialist doctor positions are permanently filled. This shortage forces patients to endure long journeys to Dhangadhi for even basic specialist medical attention. “We have a federal hospital,” lamented local resident Tejraj Bohara, “but even for a minor injury or illness, we must go to Dhangadhi.” Bohara, aged 40, believes that Deuba, who has represented the district seven times and served as prime minister five times, “should understand the problems of our district and come to our own villages to listen to us.” He added, “He has never done that. This time, we will be looking for a new candidate.”
The Urgency of a New Generation
A palpable impatience is evident among younger voters. Ashok Tamrakar, a 25-year-old, expressed his intention to deviate from his parents’ voting choices. “The older generation keeps voting for the same person. Our generation wants an option,” he stated while chatting with friends near the Ugratara Temple. Similar sentiments are prevalent among first-time voters and urban youth, many of whom supported independent candidate Sagar Dhakal in the 2022 elections.
However, not everyone is convinced that replacing Deuba would automatically bring about transformative change in Dadeldhura. Deepak Mahatara, senior vice-president of the Dadeldhura Chamber of Commerce and Industry, cautioned against assuming that new political parties equate to new outcomes. “People think changing flags will change destiny. But when the same faces reappear under different banners, how does anything change?” Mahatara questioned. He acknowledged improvements in local infrastructure such as roads, irrigation, electricity, and internet access over the years, while also noting the ongoing issue of outmigration.
Analytical Perspectives on Voter Behaviour
Political analysts identify this underlying tension as a defining characteristic of the upcoming elections. Professor Yuvraj Joshi of Dadeldhura Multiple Campus observed that while voter dissatisfaction often peaks just before polling day, it rarely translates into altered final election results. “Voters criticise the same candidate fiercely until the last moment,” he explained. “Yet on election day, the familiar face often wins.” Joshi further noted that sympathy for Deuba remains strongest among voters aged 60 and above, whereas Gen Z voters are more receptive to alternative candidates.
Poverty remains a significant challenge in Dadeldhura, a district within the Sudurpaschim Province. Data from the National Statistics Office indicates that 33.26 percent of the district’s population lives below the poverty line. Local residents have voiced complaints that Deuba has overlooked this issue, despite his consistent electoral success since the restoration of democracy in 1990.
Supporters Highlight Development Initiatives
Conversely, Deuba’s supporters point to the fulfillment of certain promises. Hemraj Chataut, the chair of Bhageshwar Rural Municipality, cited the establishment of a medical college, the blacktopping of roads in several local units, and the ongoing construction of a multipurpose hall and a bus park. Officials from Sudurpaschim University have confirmed the expansion of health science programmes in Dadeldhura.
Deuba’s Electoral Dominance and Emerging Challenges
Electorally, Deuba’s dominance in Dadeldhura has been largely undisputed. He has won every parliamentary election from the district, securing victories by significant margins on some occasions and by narrower ones on others. In the 2022 elections, even when challenged by independent Sagar Dhakal and rebel Congress leader Karna Malla, Deuba emerged victorious, albeit with reduced margins. He garnered 25,534 votes, with Dhakal receiving 13,042 and Malla obtaining 7,535.
The upcoming contest appears to be shaping up once again between Deuba and Dhakal. The potential entry of Karna Malla into the Gagan Thapa-Bishwa Prakash Sharma faction could transform the election into a three-way race. This time, Dhakal is not running as an independent but is poised to contest as a candidate for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). However, several local leaders have also expressed interest in securing the party’s ticket. While the RSP has not yet officially announced its candidate, Dhakal, district party chair Surendra Awasthi, and Provincial Assembly member Tara Joshi are among the aspirants.
Sagar Dhakal confirmed his intention to contest, stating, “Yes, I will be contesting the election from Dadeldhura this time as well. I will be in Dadeldhura in the next few days to launch my campaign.” He added, “I am in touch with the Dadeldhura Contact Committee in Kathmandu, and we are mobilising young people. We have already started work to create an election atmosphere. Although there is no official decision yet, I am almost sure to be the candidate.”
Dadeldhura has a total of 93,403 registered voters, including 1,892 new voters who have enrolled since the announcement of the March 5 elections.
